The Tenth Inning

According to industry sources, B.J. Upton has agreed to a 5 year deal with the Atlanta Braves. The deal is believed to be worth $75.25 million and would carry the centerfielder through his age 32 season.

Upton, 28, has been a solid three to four win player over the last three years, which makes the contract a fair value deal in terms of the current market. With inflation and an infusion of revenue on the horizon due to MLB’s new television deal, the contract could look much better on the back end should Upton remain healthy and productive.

And, all things considered, Upton should remain productive. The newly inked Brave’s age, skillset, and track record make him a relatively low-risk free agent target. But just how that production shakes out over the next five years is anything but easy to predict.

Upton’s approach and results at the plate have been all over the map during his Major League career. In his first full season as a Devil Ray, the 21-year-old came out of the gate in 2007 showing contact, patience, and power. In his sophomore campaign, Upton improved to an astounding 15.2%, but saw his power numbers dip dramatically. His power continued lacking in 2009 and his patience went with it, as he cut his walk total by nearly 40 percent.

Upton’s numbers stabilized some over the last three years as he settled in as a player with above average power, patience, and speed, but contact issues and the occasional mental error. Couple this with adequate, if somewhat unconvential, defense in center, and the end result is a player who’s averaged just shy of 4 wins above replacement over that span.

It seems the player Upton was from 2010 to 2011 is the player he’s most likely to be going forward. Bill James agrees, projecting the outfielder to essentially replicate his production from that period in 2012 (.248/.329/.436).

Atlanta has a reputation as a place where toolsy players maximize their potential, and the Braves are paying Upton with 2012 dollars for the flawed but still very productive player he’s already become. Centerfield was a glaring need for Frank Wren’s Bravos this off-season and Upton was an obvious fit. Considering the still young outfielder may only need to accrue about 12 wins above replacement in five years to earn his payday, this seems like a fair deal for all involved parties.

Scouts use a 20-80 scale to place grades on tools for prospects, where 50 is generally considered “MLB average,” 60 is above average (sometimes referred to as “plus”) and 70 is well above average (or plus-plus). The elusive 80 grade refers to an elite tool, or one of the top 1 percent in the game.  Think Stephen Strasburg’s fastball or Ichiro’s ability to hit for average. But the “power” tool is a little harder to get a feel for.

Plenty of prospects carry plus raw power but never make enough contact at the higher levels to manifest it. Scouts often look at bat speed and leverage to determine just how much pop a player has in his bat. Since we’re talking purely raw power, that’s not a bad way to look at the tool. However, power, in terms of isolated power (the delta between a hitter’s slugging and batting averages), can be manifested in more ways than just tape-measure home runs. I think it’s helpful for the more statistically oriented fan to get a feel for what a power grade may translate to at the big league level. Keep in mind that grades are future projections, and most prospects fall short of future projections.

In the past I’ve used the following as a back-of-the-napkin translation from power grades to ISO-P:

30 – .80-.110 (Well below average)

40 – .120-.140 (Below average)

50 – .150-.170 (Average)

60 – .180-.200 (Above average)

70 – .210-250 (Elite)

80 – .280+ (Bonds; Pujols, Ruth)

Note that scouts often assign mid-grades like 55 (which explains the gaps between ranges).

What we’ve seen in the last season-and-a-half, however, is a relatively sharp cliff in power production. The average AL ISO-P from 2003-2009 was just over .158, with no single season average below .152 and none higher than .163. In 2010, however, the AL ISO-P fell to .147. Through a little more than half the season in 2011 the AL ISO-P is .144.

I don’t mean to suggest that power numbers will continue to be suppressed, as 1-2 season dips are not uncommon, but I should adjust the numbers slightly to translate to today’s AL offensive environment. I’d say knocking off .oo5 to .007 points of ISO-P is a fair tweak.

Remember, these are just ballpark numbers and that one must make solid contact enough to manifest both raw power and ISO-P. But for those who gravitate to numbers over scouting reports, I think this scale is a fair translation of projected future production.

Trevor Bauer – 6-2 185 – RHP, UCLA

Tenth Inning Overall Rank: 10

Physical: Flexible, athletic build, but not much physicality. Strength located in core, a little room up top but not a ton of projectability left. Loose and limber for size. Delivery looks uncontrolled but Bauer shows above average body control, able to make adjustments in game.

Delivery: Oh boy. This is where it gets controversial for Bauer. He uses a herky-jerky delivery that is complicated and unusual. He tilts his shoulder back in his load to an extreme, reminiscent of Tim Lincecum. Pushes strong off the driving leg and extend

Despite a complicated delivery and inconsistent secondaries, Trevor Bauer has shined for UCLA and is our #10 Draft Prospect

s long with a stiff landing. He’s athletic and aware enough to pull off the delivery, but there is more violence and stiffness in his motion and landing when compared to that of Lincecum. While Bauer is extremely intelligent and analytical, making countless in game adjustments to harness his motion into a workable delivery, his mechanics are ultimately too complicated to be repeated with total accuracy, even for someone like Bauer. Yes, he adjusts, but mistakes/lapses are inevitable, causing the ball to occasionally be left up in the zone and the movement on his fastball to vanish. When Bauer’s motion is working, his stuff’s working. His stuff is tied to the effectiveness and repeatability of his delivery.

Stuff: It’s tough to argue with the stuff when it flashes its high end. His fastball sits 93-95 but can reach the upper 90s at times. He works 91-94 with an effective two-seamer as well. Command/control of the pitch comes and goes with his delivery, and it can be elevated at times, but it’s enough to miss bats and induce weak swings when it’s working.

Bauer shows an excellent feel for his curve. He can throw a slower, 12/6 offering to stymie college hitters and add a little extra to get a tighter spin and less break. A cerebral pitcher, Bauer has a knack for adding and subtracting as he works, which makes his stuff play up.

His change in itself is not a plus pitch at the moment, but he uses it to keep hitters off balance and it works well in accordance with the rest of his arsenal. It will be interesting to see if Bauer can consistently show plus on the change despite his complicated delivery. What works now against college pitchers might not be as effective in pro ball.

Bauer throws about 3 different sliders, ranging from a hard cutter to a screw-ball-esque motion. Being able to give college hitters so many different looks and angles allows him to be outrageously effective in UCLA’s rotation. I worry about the efficacy of Bauer’s change and slider in pro ball because, on their own, they are nothing special. ML hitters are used to seeing just about every type of movement in the box, and while depth and deception are valuable assets for any pitcher, ML hitters will adjust to any pitch if it is not refined.

The Skinny: Trevor Bauer has turned in a remarkable junior campaign for UCLA, excelling statistically over his cohort and possible 1st overall pick Gerrit Cole. If asked what college pitcher I’d want pitching in a championship game, I wouldn’t hesitate to say Bauer. His combination of mid-90s heat, 4 pitches he can throw at least two ways each, deceptive delivery, and intelligence on the mound is just too much for college hitters. He makes them look silly with regularity, and on top of that he wants the ball and doesn’t want to hit the shower until the game is over. Bauer is truly a remarkable college pitcher.

I have some slight concerns, however, as to how his stuff will translate to Major League Ball. He has two plus pitches in his fastball and curve, but his change and slider are currently nothing to write home about, no matter which way he’s spinning them. Deception and variety go a long way in college ball, but only take you so far in pro ball. I think he’ll be an effective Major Leaguer, but I’m not sure if I can slap a realistic ace ceiling on his stuff. Couple that with mild concern about overuse in college, mild concern about his delivery causing injury problems down the line, and moderate concern that his complicated motion will cause inconsistent command/control going forward, and the best college pitcher in baseball drops to 10th on the Tenth Inning draft board.

Future Projection #2/3 starter on a contending team.

Archie Bradley – 6-4, 225 – Broken Arrow HS (OK)

Tenth Inning Overall Rank: 9

Physical: Big, projectable right-hander with ideal pitcher’s frame. He’s grown two inches and packed on 20 or so pounds over the last two years, with plenty of room left for growth. When all is said and done he will have the body of a durable power pitcher: High hips, long arms, broad shoulders, strong core. Exactly the type of body you look for in a HS pitcher.

Bradley's mid-90s fastball and deceptive, hammer curve allow him a ceiling that rivals that of any arm in the draft.

Delivery: Loose arm that generates velocity with relative ease. A little long in the load phase but easily correctable. Long arms and legs allow for good extension and reach. Right now uses arm strength and push to generate velo, but as he finishes growing out he should learn to use hip rotation to bump velocity and relieve stress from his arm. Repeatable delivery, sturdy landing, no red flags.

Stuff: Bradley has a live fastball that has touched 97/98, but lives more comfortably now with a four-seamer in the 93-95 range. He can generate some cut and sink on his two-seamer, which comes in at 91-93. Chance to bump up that velo 1-2 MPH as he fills out and utilizes his hips in delivery, but over a pro workload on 4 days rest, there’s a risk the bump doesn’t show. Still, plus velo and solid movement and feel makes his fastball a plus pitch.

Bradley’s main (read: only viable) secondary right now is his hammer curve, a true 12-6 pitch that misses bats and flashes plus. Bradley has surprisingly good command of the pitch, and loves to use it almost as much as the fastball. He can throw the pitch as a power curve in the mid-80s, but at this point it works best as a slower roller around 80 that serves to disrupt timing as well as induce swings and misses.

Bradley’s two-pitch combo is so good that he’s hardly focused on developing a viable third pitch. He hasn’t needed to. He works in a straight change, which will be essential at the next level to keep hitters off his fastball, that comes in largely flat and inconsistent. With Bradley’s athleticism and feel, I don’t doubt that he can develop a proper third offering, but right now it’s not there. He’ll tinker with change up variations in the minors and see what sticks.

The Skinny: Coming into the season, Bradley had a strong shot at becoming the top prep pitcher on the draft. He’s been overshadowed by Dylan Bundy’s leap forward, but Bradley is no slouch himself. His mid-90s fastball and deceptive, hammer curve allow him a ceiling that rivals that of any arm in the draft. It is essential, however, that Bradley develop an effective third pitch to keep hitters off-balance, or else he will not have the depth of arsenal necessary to get ML hitters out the second and third times through the lineup.

Should the change-of-pace never quite develop, Bradley should turn into an effective closer. Don’t let the C-word scare you off, though, he’s got the ceiling to justify a top 10 pick, even in such a deep class. Bradley will not rush through a system. He’ll take the requisite 3-4 full seasons to develop. It will be best to be patient with this kid and allow him to refine his craft. A team with a good track record of developing pitching could have a prize in the making.

Future Projection: #1/2 starter on a contending team; frontline closer/bullpen ace. Moderate risk/high reward.