Power Grades and ISO-P Projection

Scouts use a 20-80 scale to place grades on tools for prospects, where 50 is generally considered “MLB average,” 60 is above average (sometimes referred to as “plus”) and 70 is well above average (or plus-plus). The elusive 80 grade refers to an elite tool, or one of the top 1 percent in the game.  Think Stephen Strasburg’s fastball or Ichiro’s ability to hit for average. But the “power” tool is a little harder to get a feel for.

Plenty of prospects carry plus raw power but never make enough contact at the higher levels to manifest it. Scouts often look at bat speed and leverage to determine just how much pop a player has in his bat. Since we’re talking purely raw power, that’s not a bad way to look at the tool. However, power, in terms of isolated power (the delta between a hitter’s slugging and batting averages), can be manifested in more ways than just tape-measure home runs. I think it’s helpful for the more statistically oriented fan to get a feel for what a power grade may translate to at the big league level. Keep in mind that grades are future projections, and most prospects fall short of future projections.

In the past I’ve used the following as a back-of-the-napkin translation from power grades to ISO-P:

30 – .80-.110 (Well below average)

40 – .120-.140 (Below average)

50 – .150-.170 (Average)

60 – .180-.200 (Above average)

70 – .210-250 (Elite)

80 – .280+ (Bonds; Pujols, Ruth)

Note that scouts often assign mid-grades like 55 (which explains the gaps between ranges).

What we’ve seen in the last season-and-a-half, however, is a relatively sharp cliff in power production. The average AL ISO-P from 2003-2009 was just over .158, with no single season average below .152 and none higher than .163. In 2010, however, the AL ISO-P fell to .147. Through a little more than half the season in 2011 the AL ISO-P is .144.

I don’t mean to suggest that power numbers will continue to be suppressed, as 1-2 season dips are not uncommon, but I should adjust the numbers slightly to translate to today’s AL offensive environment. I’d say knocking off .oo5 to .007 points of ISO-P is a fair tweak.

Remember, these are just ballpark numbers and that one must make solid contact enough to manifest both raw power and ISO-P. But for those who gravitate to numbers over scouting reports, I think this scale is a fair translation of projected future production.

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Trevor Bauer Scouting Report

Trevor Bauer – 6-2 185 – RHP, UCLA

Tenth Inning Overall Rank: 10

Physical: Flexible, athletic build, but not much physicality. Strength located in core, a little room up top but not a ton of projectability left. Loose and limber for size. Delivery looks uncontrolled but Bauer shows above average body control, able to make adjustments in game.

Delivery: Oh boy. This is where it gets controversial for Bauer. He uses a herky-jerky delivery that is complicated and unusual. He tilts his shoulder back in his load to an extreme, reminiscent of Tim Lincecum. Pushes strong off the driving leg and extend

Despite a complicated delivery and inconsistent secondaries, Trevor Bauer has shined for UCLA and is our #10 Draft Prospect

s long with a stiff landing. He’s athletic and aware enough to pull off the delivery, but there is more violence and stiffness in his motion and landing when compared to that of Lincecum. While Bauer is extremely intelligent and analytical, making countless in game adjustments to harness his motion into a workable delivery, his mechanics are ultimately too complicated to be repeated with total accuracy, even for someone like Bauer. Yes, he adjusts, but mistakes/lapses are inevitable, causing the ball to occasionally be left up in the zone and the movement on his fastball to vanish. When Bauer’s motion is working, his stuff’s working. His stuff is tied to the effectiveness and repeatability of his delivery.

Stuff: It’s tough to argue with the stuff when it flashes its high end. His fastball sits 93-95 but can reach the upper 90s at times. He works 91-94 with an effective two-seamer as well. Command/control of the pitch comes and goes with his delivery, and it can be elevated at times, but it’s enough to miss bats and induce weak swings when it’s working.

Bauer shows an excellent feel for his curve. He can throw a slower, 12/6 offering to stymie college hitters and add a little extra to get a tighter spin and less break. A cerebral pitcher, Bauer has a knack for adding and subtracting as he works, which makes his stuff play up.

His change in itself is not a plus pitch at the moment, but he uses it to keep hitters off balance and it works well in accordance with the rest of his arsenal. It will be interesting to see if Bauer can consistently show plus on the change despite his complicated delivery. What works now against college pitchers might not be as effective in pro ball.

Bauer throws about 3 different sliders, ranging from a hard cutter to a screw-ball-esque motion. Being able to give college hitters so many different looks and angles allows him to be outrageously effective in UCLA’s rotation. I worry about the efficacy of Bauer’s change and slider in pro ball because, on their own, they are nothing special. ML hitters are used to seeing just about every type of movement in the box, and while depth and deception are valuable assets for any pitcher, ML hitters will adjust to any pitch if it is not refined.

The Skinny: Trevor Bauer has turned in a remarkable junior campaign for UCLA, excelling statistically over his cohort and possible 1st overall pick Gerrit Cole. If asked what college pitcher I’d want pitching in a championship game, I wouldn’t hesitate to say Bauer. His combination of mid-90s heat, 4 pitches he can throw at least two ways each, deceptive delivery, and intelligence on the mound is just too much for college hitters. He makes them look silly with regularity, and on top of that he wants the ball and doesn’t want to hit the shower until the game is over. Bauer is truly a remarkable college pitcher.

I have some slight concerns, however, as to how his stuff will translate to Major League Ball. He has two plus pitches in his fastball and curve, but his change and slider are currently nothing to write home about, no matter which way he’s spinning them. Deception and variety go a long way in college ball, but only take you so far in pro ball. I think he’ll be an effective Major Leaguer, but I’m not sure if I can slap a realistic ace ceiling on his stuff. Couple that with mild concern about overuse in college, mild concern about his delivery causing injury problems down the line, and moderate concern that his complicated motion will cause inconsistent command/control going forward, and the best college pitcher in baseball drops to 10th on the Tenth Inning draft board.

Future Projection #2/3 starter on a contending team.

Grade Current Future
Fastball 55/60 60/65
Curve 55 60
Change 40 50/55
Slider 40 50/55
Command 45/50 50/55
Control 45/50 50/55
Mechanics 40 50
OFP 54-57

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Archie Bradley Scouting Report

Archie Bradley – 6-4, 225 – Broken Arrow HS (OK)

Tenth Inning Overall Rank: 9

Physical: Big, projectable right-hander with ideal pitcher’s frame. He’s grown two inches and packed on 20 or so pounds over the last two years, with plenty of room left for growth. When all is said and done he will have the body of a durable power pitcher: High hips, long arms, broad shoulders, strong core. Exactly the type of body you look for in a HS pitcher.

Bradley's mid-90s fastball and deceptive, hammer curve allow him a ceiling that rivals that of any arm in the draft.

Delivery: Loose arm that generates velocity with relative ease. A little long in the load phase but easily correctable. Long arms and legs allow for good extension and reach. Right now uses arm strength and push to generate velo, but as he finishes growing out he should learn to use hip rotation to bump velocity and relieve stress from his arm. Repeatable delivery, sturdy landing, no red flags.

Stuff: Bradley has a live fastball that has touched 97/98, but lives more comfortably now with a four-seamer in the 93-95 range. He can generate some cut and sink on his two-seamer, which comes in at 91-93. Chance to bump up that velo 1-2 MPH as he fills out and utilizes his hips in delivery, but over a pro workload on 4 days rest, there’s a risk the bump doesn’t show. Still, plus velo and solid movement and feel makes his fastball a plus pitch.

Bradley’s main (read: only viable) secondary right now is his hammer curve, a true 12-6 pitch that misses bats and flashes plus. Bradley has surprisingly good command of the pitch, and loves to use it almost as much as the fastball. He can throw the pitch as a power curve in the mid-80s, but at this point it works best as a slower roller around 80 that serves to disrupt timing as well as induce swings and misses.

Bradley’s two-pitch combo is so good that he’s hardly focused on developing a viable third pitch. He hasn’t needed to. He works in a straight change, which will be essential at the next level to keep hitters off his fastball, that comes in largely flat and inconsistent. With Bradley’s athleticism and feel, I don’t doubt that he can develop a proper third offering, but right now it’s not there. He’ll tinker with change up variations in the minors and see what sticks.

The Skinny: Coming into the season, Bradley had a strong shot at becoming the top prep pitcher on the draft. He’s been overshadowed by Dylan Bundy’s leap forward, but Bradley is no slouch himself. His mid-90s fastball and deceptive, hammer curve allow him a ceiling that rivals that of any arm in the draft. It is essential, however, that Bradley develop an effective third pitch to keep hitters off-balance, or else he will not have the depth of arsenal necessary to get ML hitters out the second and third times through the lineup.

Should the change-of-pace never quite develop, Bradley should turn into an effective closer. Don’t let the C-word scare you off, though, he’s got the ceiling to justify a top 10 pick, even in such a deep class. Bradley will not rush through a system. He’ll take the requisite 3-4 full seasons to develop. It will be best to be patient with this kid and allow him to refine his craft. A team with a good track record of developing pitching could have a prize in the making.

Future Projection: #1/2 starter on a contending team; frontline closer/bullpen ace. Moderate risk/high reward.

Grade Current Future
Fastball 55/60 60/65
Curve 55 60
Change 30 50/55
Mechanics 50 55
Command 45 50/55
Control 45 50/55
OFP 54-58

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Top 50 Prospects in the 2011 MLB draft

Rank Name Position Class School
1 Gerrit Cole RHP JR. UCLA
2 Anthony Rendon 3B JR. Rice
3 Bubba Starling OF SR. Gardner Edgarton HS (TX)
4 Dylan Bundy RHP SR. Owasso HS (OK)
5 Sonny Gray RHP JR. Vanderbilt
6 Taylor Jungmann RHP JR. Texas
7 Daniel Hultzen LHP JR. Virginia
8 Jed Bradley LHP JR. Georgia Tech
9 Archie Bradley RHP SR. Broken Arrow HS (OK)
10 Trevor Bauer RHP JR. UCLA
11 Daniel Norris RHP SR. Science Hill HS (TN)
12 Francisco Lindor SS SR. Monteverde HS (FL)
13 George Springer OF JR. Connecticut
14 Josh Bell OF SR. Dallas Jesuit Prep (TX)
15 Tyler Anderson LHP JR. Oregon
16 Matt Barnes RHP JR. Connecticut
17 Taylor Guerrieri RHP SR. Spring Valley HS (SC)
18 Alex Meyer RHP JR. Kentucky
19 Mike Mahtook OF JR. Louisiana State
20 CJ Cron 1B JR. Utah
21 Jose Fernandez RHP SR. Alonso HS (FL)
22 John Stilson RHP JR. Texas A&M
23 Javier Baez C/SS/3B SR. Arlington County HS (FL)
24 Andrew Susac C JR. Oregon St.
25 Kolton Wong 2B JR. Hawaii
26 Jackie Bradley, Jr. OF Jr. South Carolina
27 Levi Michael SS JR. North Carolina
28 Blake Swihart C SR. Cleveland HS (NM)
29 Henry Owens LHP SR. Edison HS (CA)
30 Robert Stephenson RHP SR. Alhambra HS (CA)
31 Matt Purke RHP JR. Texas Christian
32 Anthony Meo RHP JR. Coastal Carolina
33 Dillon Howard RHP SR. Searcy HS (AK)
34 Brandon Nimmo OF SR. NO SCHOOL TEAM
35 Austin Hedges C SR. Jserra HS (CA)
36 Joe Ross RHP SR. Bishop O’Dwod HS (CA)
37 Cory Spangenberg 2B/3B SO Indian River JuCo
38 Brian Goodwin OF SO Miami-Dade JuCo
39 Andrew Chafin LHP JR. Kent State
40 Michael Kelly RHP SR. W. Boca Raton HS (FL)
41 Joe Panik SS/2B JR. St. John’s
42 Tyler Beede RHP SR. Lawrence Academy (MA)
43 Trevor Story SS SR. Irving HS (TX)
44 Joe Osich LHP JR. Oregon St.
45 Tony Zych RHP JR. Louisville
46 Hudson Boyd RHP SR. Bishop Verot Cath. HS (FL)
47 Kevin Comer RHP SR. Seneca HC (NJ)
48 Jake Cave LHP SR. Kecoughtan HS (VA)
49 Jorge Lopez RHP SR. Academia de Milagrosa (PR)
50 Kyle Winkler RHP JR. Texas Christian

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Jed Bradley Scouting Report

Jed Bradley – 6-4, 225 – LHP Georgia Tech

Physical: Ideal pitcher’s frame, with well distributed strength and room for a little more. Special combination of size, strength and left-handedness. Should be a 200+ IP workhorse.

While guys like Hultzen, Bauer, and Jungmann have a more established pedigree of control/command and feel, Bradley could end up as good as or better than any of them.

Delivery: High 3/4 slot, easy arm action, downward plane. Smooth, repeatable mechanics. Some deception, good arm extension. Put simply, Jed Bradley has some of the smoothest and cleanest mechanics in college ball, which bodes well for future command once he finishes growing into his body and gets a better feel for his secondaries. It’s very rare to see a left-handed pitcher with good size, a good frame, and a clean and effortless delivery.

Stuff: Bradley’s delivery allows for easy low 90s velocity on his fastball. Considering his size and room for growth, the pitch could easily sit 92-94 going forward, and Bradley maintains velocity deep into games. His fastball comes with a bit of deception and a heavy, downward plane, leading to favorable ground ball splits. He can cut or sink the two-seam pitch by adjusting pressure. The fastball is consistently plus and has a little room for growth as well.

Due to the strength of his fastball, Bradley has relied on it much more heavily than have some of the other top pitchers in the draft class. Because of that, he hasn’t devoted much time to developing his secondaries. Most of any success Bradley experienced prior to his junior year came on the fastball alone, though without the varied arsenal his numbers were fairly mediocre. Bradley has taken a huge step forward toward becoming a complete pitcher this season, as he’s successfully integrated his slider and change into his repertoire. His slider has been inconsistent, but at its best it provides hard, late sweeping action and serves as a weapon against right-handed hitters. It’s a swing and miss pitch that flashes plus and could be effective in and out of the zone, but it can get loopy at times. His change of pace also flashes plus, mimicking the action and plane of his fastball, but diving and fading late. The change up itself is probably an above average pitch and compliments his fastball very nicely.

The Skinny: Jed Bradley is not as polished as several of the other top college arms in the draft. He needs some more development and refinement in the minor leagues, and still carries some physical projection. He has not provided the track record of those more developed pitchers, adjusting to growth and relying primarily on his fastball over the last few years. Still, the 2011 season has seen Bradley take big steps forward and hint at the pitcher he could become two or three years down the line. The size, frame and delivery allow scouts to dream on an already advanced repertoire, and while guys like Hultzen, Bauer, and Jungmann have a more established pedigree of control/command and feel, Bradley could end up as good as or better than any of them.

Being a draft-eligible college lefty with great stuff, Bradley is often compared to Virginia LHP Danny Hultzen, which I believe is a bit unfair. Watching the two pitch in College ball, it’s easy to dismiss Bradley based on their now abilities. Bradley will be rightly debited for lack of college track record and polish, but with a plus fastball, potential plus secondaries, above average command, and a near perfect body and delivery, I’d give Bradley the nod in ceiling.

Future Projection: #1/2 pitcher on a contending team

Grade Current Future
Fastball 55 60/65
Slider 45 55/60
Change 50 55
Mechanics 55 60
Command 45 55/60
Control 50 55/60
OFP 57-60

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Danny Hultzen Scouting Report

Danny Hultzen – 6-3, 200 – LHP, Virginia

Tenth Inning Overall Rank: 7

Physical: Lean build, medium-high waist, sturdy trunk, strong legs. Slender frame but good amount of muscle well-distributed. I don’t see much room for growth, but could possibly put on 5 pounds of muscle.

Danny Hultzen is as close to a can't miss selection as you'll see, and that has made him incredibly enticing to Scouting Directors of the top 5 organizations in the draft.

Delivery: Hultzen goes into a unique squat prior to delivery that allows him to use his strong legs to generate velocity. Low 3/4 arm slot and excellent angle create lots of deception. Medium stride but long limbs and late looks make his fastball appear explosive. This is not your typical delivery, but the mechanics are fluid and repeatable and hitters have trouble picking up on the ball until it’s on them. Not the prettiest delivery in the world but it’s effective and relatively clean.

Stuff: Hultzen does not have a standout, plus-plus pitch, but uses above average command/control of a well-rounded and deep arsenal to keep hitters off-balanced. With some additional core strength and a more efficient delivery, Hultzen has bumped his velocity from 88-91 in years past to 90-94 over his junior campaign. The lefty sat in the mid-90s for a stretch this season, which helped bump his draft status considerably, but has reverted to sitting mostly 90-92 and touching 93-95 at times. This is ultimately where I see him sitting in pro ball. While he could add a little muscle to the top half, I don’t see mid-90s velocity holding up on 4 days rest, over 200 innings, against top notch competition. His frame and delivery portend a slight regression in velocity. Still, a low 90s fastball from a deceptive left-handed delivery is a strong weapon.

While the fastball is above average, Hultzen uses his varied arsenal to miss college bats. His go-to secondary at the moment is the slider, which he buries often against right-handed pitchers. He uses a harder variation of the pitch that acts like a cut fastball in on the hands of right-handed hitters as well. The slider does not have plus movement, but the deception in his arm slot and delivery allow the pitch to make both right- and left-handed college hitters look foolish, often inducing swinging misses out of the zone. He locates the pitch pretty well, but he’ll have to learn to use it effectively in and out of the zone at the pro level, as ML hitters will learn to simply lay off the pitch, particularly in two strike counts.

I actually like the potential of his change up a bit more than that of his slider, as I think it’s more a more effective mechanism to disrupt timing than the slider, which is a chase pitch. His change has room for improvement, but it is a solid swing-and-miss pitch at its best, moving away from, rather than in on, righties. This pitch will be instrumental in determining the effectiveness of his fastball.

Hultzen sometimes mixes in a true curve, but has largely abandoned it this season. It may not be a viable ML pitch, and it’s unclear whether he’ll continue to develop it in the minors.

The Skinny: Hultzen is not a power pitcher, and his velo spike will not last in the professional ranks, but he is one of the safest college pitchers in the draft. An intelligent approach, a deep arsenal including three above average pitches, and a very deceptive left-handed delivery make him one of the best bets to stick in a Major League rotation. Hultzen’s statistics and track record are pristine. My only concern going forward is that his swing-and-miss tendencies result largely from deception and the ability to get college hitters to swing and miss at breaking balls out of the zone. More patient hitters with better pitch ID will lay off the dirty sliders in MLB and wait on fastballs in the zone. The excellent angle allows Hultzen to hide the ball through his delivery, however, and it will still be a tough task to pick up pitches in a timely matter regardless of who he’s facing.

With some regression in velocity, Hultzen will probably settle in as a very good mid-rotation starter on a contending team. Should the 92-95 MPH fastball hold up in MLB, countered with an effective changeup and slider, it’s not inconceivable that Hultzen could step into the top of a rotation. Compared to some other arms in the draft, Hultzen’s ceiling may seem lacking, but weighing risk and reward, Hultzen deserves a spot on the top 10. He’s as close to a can’t miss selection as you’ll see, and that has made him incredibly enticing to Scouting Directors of the top 5 organizations in the draft.

Future Projection: #2/3 starter on contending team, #1/2 starter if velo spike holds. One of the highest floors in the draft.

Grade Current Future
Fastball 55 55/60
Slider 50 55
Change 50 55/60
Mechanics 55 55/60
Command 50/55 55/60
Control 55 60
OFP 58-59

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Taylor Jungmann Scouting Report

Taylor Jungmann – 6-6, 220 – RHP – Texas
Tenth Inning Overall Rank: 6

Physical: Tall and limber with a strong core, Jungmann shows control of his long arms. He is loose and fairly athletic. Shows a surprising amount of body control for such a tall young pitcher, allowing for surprising control/command. He still has a little room for growth in his upper body, leaving a little bit of projection.

Delivery: I was not particularly a fan of Jungmann’s delivery coming into the season. He throws from a low-three-quarters slot

Jungmann is an incredibly safe bet to stick in a Major League rotation, with front of the rotation upside to boot.

and, in the past, tended to sling the ball across his body, pivoting across a stiff landing leg. This caused quite a bit of deception in his delivery and gave hitters (particularly righties) fits, but it did not bode well for future health or consistency of command. Jungmann has effectively addressed those issues this season. He now lands with a softer left leg that is pointed less toward the right-handed hitter and more toward home. He still maintains deception in his delivery, and has not moved the arm slot, but his left leg has less impact, his body isn’t jerking as much as it used to, and the new pivot point allows for better control and command (evidenced by a career low 1.98 BB/9). I no longer have health or command concerns, and his improved body control and cleaner mechanics actually make him an incredibly safe arm.

Stuff: Nothing in Jungmann’s arsenal will wow you, but he commands three potential plus pitches to both sides of the plate. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s and Jungmann feeds off it. He has supreme confidence in the pitch, commanding it well and throwing it in any count. His breaking ball, which I’ll call a slurve, is an ever evolving pitch. In the past, he’s thrown a harder, sharper slider that is a good weapon against left-handed hitters. He still throws it, but has leaned on a more traditional curve this season, on which hitters have a tough time squaring up. The more up and down motion of the pitch is a stark contrast to the horizontal movement Jungmann usually generates from his nearly sidearm delivery. The breaking ball is a feel pitch, which Jungmann can adjust in velocity and plane, and provides a weapon against hitters on both sides of the plate. He throws two change-ups, a traditional version of the pitch with good depth and fade and a “screw change,” which is deceptive and falls off the table like a breaking ball. It’s unclear whether Jungmann will keep the screw change in pro ball, as he sometimes telegraphs the pitch and it has been more of a novelty against college hitters, but it’s actually quite effective (and hilarious) when used properly.

The Skinny: Jungman brings advanced feel of three potential plus pitches, adding and subtracting velocity and moving them around the strike zone at will. One small point of concern is his “low” K-rate. He misses bats, but you usually see a top 10 college arm K more than a batter per inning. The fact that Jungmann’s K/9 rate has dipped to 8.51 even with the new bats suggests that one shouldn’t expect big strikeout numbers from him as a pro. It also suggests, however, that Jungmann doesn’t have to pitch for the strikeout to be successful. Along with the lower K-rate, Jungmann is showing the best control and command of his young career. He keeps runners off the base paths by limiting walks and his stuff, along with his deceptive delivery and good command, keeps hitters off-balance. I imagine Jungman posting a K rate in the sixes, a walk rate under 3, and ERA’s consistently under 4. If Jungmann grows a little in the upper body and adds some velocity, he could step into the front of a rotation, but he’s a very safe bet to stick as a successful starter in MLB as soon as Auguest of 2012.

Future Projection: #2 Starter on a contending team, possible ace with a little growth, very high floor.

Grades Current Future
Fastball 55 60
Curve 55 60
Change 50 55/60
Mechanics 55 55/60
Command 50/55 55/60
Control 55 60
OFP 58-60

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Dylan Bundy Scouting Report

Dylan Bundy – 6-1, 205 – RHP – Owasso HS (OK)

Tenth Inning Overall Rank: 4

Physical: Strong, sturdy frame. Thick in legs/trunk, weight evenly distributed. Impeccable conditioning. Height and current body severely limits further projection, but at age 18 he’s already developed into a durable power pitcher’s frame.

In short: Bundy is a future ace, and the rare prep pitcher who could plow through the minors in 2-3 seasons.

Delivery: Uses strong lower half to generate big velocity. Smooth mechanics, a little long in the load phase but forms a good line with no inversion and a low drop. Delivery is repeatable and solid. Bears well for good command/control going forward.

Stuff: Bundy uses his lower body strength and explosive delivery to generate consistent mid-90s velo on his fastball, flirting with triple digits throughout his senior year. As he gets into pro ball and stretches out on shorter rest, he won’t sit 98, as he is essentially maxed out physically and his frame doesn’t allow for much further projection. He should rest comfortably in the 94-96 range, however, with the ability to reach back and hit the upper 90s when needed. Good movement and command to both sides of the plate make this a plus-plus pitch down the line.

Bundy throws a cutter that moves so much it mimics a slideresque fade. A tight, hard pitch that sits 86-88, this is his out pitch vs. left-handed hitters. Originally a straight-forward slider, Bundy has blended the pitch into a proper cut-fastball, which lessens the stress on his elbow and comes with more natural deception in arm slot and action.

Bundy mixes in two additional secondaries, a 12/6 curve and a developing change. He hasn’t used the curve as much this season other than to change the eye level of hitters as it comes at a completely different plane than his other pitches. It’s only an average pitch right now, but with further development in the minors it could be come a plus pitch. The change-up is rudimentary at this point but could easily develop into an average or better pitch as he refines it in pro ball.

The Skinny: There is so much to love about Bundy. He carries mid-to-upper 90′s velocity on a plus-plus fastball, is extremely athletic and is a conditioning freak, commands four pitches that move in all possible ways and should be effective against both right-handed and left-handed hitters, and he’s remarkably advanced and polished for a HS power pitcher. In short: he’s a future ace, and the rare prep pitcher who could plow through the minors in 2-3 seasons. The only slight knocks on Bundy are that he was worked heavily last spring and saw diminished stuff last summer and that he offers very little physical projection. His stuff has rebounded big time this season, however, and, at 205 pounds of pure muscle and a fastball that touches 100 MPH, who needs any more projection? Bundy is simply one of the most physically advanced and technically polished pitchers I’ve seen come out of the prep ranks.

His older brother, Bobby, is currently pitching in Hi-A Frederick for the Orioles’ system, and they could both be pitching in the big leagues by 2014.

Future Projection: Prototypical, power-pitching ace on a contending team.

Grades Current Future
Fastball 65 70
Curve 50 55/60
Cutter 55 60/65
Change 40 50/55
Mechanics 55 55/60
Command 50 60
Control 50 55/60
OFP 58-62

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Bubba Starling Scouting Report

Derek “Bubba” Starling – 6-4, 190 – OF/RHP Gardner-Edgerton HS (Kan)

Physical: At age 18, Starling is already a physical specimen with considerable room to grow. Broad shoulders could house serious upper body strength down the line, strong core and trunk, long lengs, medium hips. Freakish athleticism harnessed by strong frame and excellent body control. He is a natural athlete and excels at three sports.

In terms of pure projection, Bubba Starling may have the highest upside in the draft.

Defense: The running theme for everything Starling should be the following: currently unrefined due to a lack of exclusive focus on baseball, but potentially plus down the line due to elite athleticism and ability to learn and adjust. Starling has put most of his focus over the last few years on football (he is a Nebraska commit to QB), but as coaches and scouts realized that he could emerge as a top draft pick, and potential multi-millionaire, he has started to really tackle baseball. All aspects of his game, including defense, have grown considerably in about 1.5 years, but he is still a step or two behind other serious considers who have lived the game for years. Right now Starling tends to take circular and inefficient routes in the outfield, but his speed and athleticism allow him to get to balls that most others would simply never come close to. He is a quick learner and has a strong work ethic, and should be able to cut the dead steps out of his routes down the line. Combined with plus arm strength, his athleticism should lead him to become an above average defender either in center or right, depending on how he fills out.

Bat: You guessed it: potentially plus but with a good ways to go. His swing is raw in the sense that his load is sloppy and his transfer of weight is not efficient. The parts of his body aren’t currently moving on a line the way they do for hitters who’ve spent thousands of hours perfecting the muscle memory. Still, despite the inefficiencies, Starling generates consistent hard contact. I sometimes see the “raw” label applied to guys who have developed bad habits they must unlearn. Starling is raw in the sense that he just needs to learn the good mechanics, and he tends to absorb nuances of sport easily. His body control allows him to excel in most athletic areas. His raw bat speed and excellent hand-eye coordination give him potential plus hit and plus power in the future, though his swing needs a good bit of developing.

The Skinny: In terms of pure projection, Starling may have the highest ceiling in the draft. He excels at everything he does, combining elite athleticism with work ethic and determination to be the best in any area in which he may be focusing. Any organization with a good track record of developing hitters and money to spend (he’ll need at least Tate money to pry him away from Nebraska) should be ecstatic to land Starling in the top 10. A scout can dream on Starling as much as he can on just about any prep candidate in recent years, but his ceiling is mitigated some by the amount of development left. Starling also brings mid-90s heat on the mound, but the enticing package of defense and hitting he could bring is too good for any organization to turn down.

Grade Current Future
Hit 30/40 55/60
Power 30/40 55/60
Arm 60 60
Defense 40 60
Speed 70 70
Approach 30 55/60
OFP 59-62

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Anthony Rendon Scouting Report

Anthony Rendon – 5-11, 190 – 3B, Rice

Tenth Inning Overall Rank – 2

Physical: Slightly undersized with medium build but good strength evenly distributed from top to bottom. Very agile, athletic, and strong despite the height.

Defense: When healthy, Rendon has the makings of a plus defender at third. He possesses plus arm strength and uses sound

Anthony Rendon is a true five-tool talent with polish and feel

footwork and mechanics to make strong, accurate throws. He’s been kept off the field this season by a sore shoulder, and has even recently experimented at second base. I think he could handle the footwork and range required of a second baseman, but assuming the shoulder heals up properly, it would be a waste of his excellent arm. Health permitting, Rendon has the potential to vie for Gold Gloves in the future, and his plus defense is part of what makes him such a safe bet at the top of the draft.

Swing: Rendon has a beautiful and effective swing that should grow into plus-plus (.300+ BA) down the line. He generates above average raw bat speed which plays up because of his excellent bat and body control. He has an uncanny ability to get the bat to the ball, allowing him to spoil tough pitches and limit his strikeouts. A very disciplined approach and some of the best pitch ID you’ll see in the amateur ranks makes him an all-around excellent hitter. He squares up consistently and will utilize his line drive stroke to hit for average with lots of doubles in the gap and above average home run power. Rendon won’t be a 40 HR bat, but he could turn into the elusive .300/.400/.500 bat down the line.

The Skinny: A lot has been made of Rendon’s injury status as the draft approaches. Rendon has missed parts of every season in college, leading some to slap on him the mythical “injury-prone” label. His two ankle injuries, however, were relatively freakish and are completely in the past. The shoulder injury is a concern in that medical reports (which were released to clubs yesterday) need to clear him of any structural damage. From the information that has leaked and the fact that Rice continues to run him out into the box, the injury does not seem to present future problems. If he were in pro ball, Rendon likely would have hit the DL for a few weeks and let his shoulder heal up completely. He is Rice’s heart and soul, however, and both he and his coach have wanted him in the lineup. The sore shoulder has undoubtedly sapped some of his power this year, but assuming health he should turn into a .200 ISO-P guy. Yes, the medical situation is a slight concern, and it’s the reason Rendon dropped from 1st to 2nd on my list. He should really be considered 1B, however, as I believe that, health permitting, he could be every bit as special as could Cole. He is a true five-tool talent with polish and feel.

Future Projection: Perennial all-star, #3 hitter with above average defense in the infield.

Grade Current Future
Hit 55 65/70
Power 50 55/60
Arm 60 60
Defense 55 60
Speed 55 55
Approach 55 60
OFP 59-61

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